Average NFL Career Length | What the Numbers Say

The number most people quote for the average NFL career is about 3.3 years. The league itself has argued for about 6. Both can be true, because they measure different groups of players. This article explains where each number comes from, how draft round changes the picture, and why football careers are short.

The 3.3-year figure

The NFL Players Association has long put the average career at about 3.3 seasons, and it is the figure repeated in most articles on the subject. It is also contested. A JD Supra article, "Stop saying the average NFL career is about three years", points out that "average" and "NFL player" are both vague terms here, and that the union has repeated the number without publishing a detailed method.

The likely reason the figure is so low: it counts everyone who reaches the league, including the many players who spend a training camp or a season or two on a roster or practice squad and are gone. Those very short careers pull the average down hard.

The league's 6-year figure

In 2011 the league answered with its own numbers. As reported by Colts.com, a 2011 NFL Management Council analysis of players who entered the league between 1993 and 2002 found:

• 6.0 years for a player who made his club's opening-day roster as a rookie.
• 9.3 years for a first-round draft pick.
• 11.7 years for a player selected for, or playing in, at least one Pro Bowl.

Commissioner Roger Goodell cited these figures to argue that the low number is dragged down by players who never make a roster. Critics noted that each qualifier filters toward better players, so the numbers describe successful careers rather than a typical one.

Draft round matters a lot

The clearest pattern in the data is draft position. Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap followed the 2015 draft class in Revisiting the 2015 NFL Draft, counting a season each time a player finished it on a roster or practice squad:

Two things stand out. First-rounders last about twice as long as late-rounders. And the gap flattens in the late rounds: once a player is picked on day three, a round either way makes little difference.

Part of that is talent: better players go earlier. Part of it is opportunity. Teams invest more in early picks, so those players get more snaps and more chances to prove themselves. An Ohio State study of draft data found that draft order in the early rounds did not predict how well players actually performed over their first four seasons, which suggests early picks get those chances whether or not they earn them.

Why football careers are so short

• Injuries. Football is a collision sport. Knee ligament tears, Achilles tears and concussions end careers at every position, and a serious injury can take away the speed a player depends on.
• Position wear. Running backs are widely reported to have the shortest careers, because they take the most hits. Kickers and punters, who are rarely hit, tend to last longest, and quarterbacks often play into their late thirties.
• Roster churn. Each team keeps a limited roster, and every spring brings a new draft class and undrafted free agents competing for the same spots. A fringe player who loses a step is usually replaced by a younger, cheaper one.
• Contracts. Most deals are not fully guaranteed, so a team can release a player with little cost. Veterans on bigger contracts are often cut as soon as their play slips.

Putting it together

For the typical player who reaches the league, a career is short: often only a few seasons, many of them on the edge of the roster. For a player who makes an opening-day roster as a rookie, the league's own data says about six years. For first-round picks and Pro Bowl players, careers of nine to twelve years are normal. The honest answer to "how long do NFL players play?" depends on which group you mean.

Try it yourself: play a whole career in minutes

If you want to feel how those odds play out, American Football Career Simulator is a free, text-based American football career game in your browser, with no download and no account. It uses a fictional league, teams and awards. You start at birth, play high school football, pick a college, enter a seven-round draft and play 17-game seasons.

Many of the same patterns are built in. Early picks get bigger contracts and more chances. Injury cards force you to choose between resting and playing hurt. Running backs get hurt most and decline earliest, and quarterbacks and kickers last longest. Fringe players get released, and teams mark down older players in free agency.

For strategy, read our American Football Career Simulator tips. Or skip the reading and start your career now.